Why Elizabeth Warren is a bigger Iowa front-runner than you think

CNN Politics 1 month ago

The headlines coming off a new poll in Iowa -- sponsored by CNN and the Des Moines Register -- largely focus on the fact that Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is now at the top tier of the 2020 field in the crucial Iowa caucuses. That notion drastically undersells how strong a position Warren is actually in.

Yes, Warren tops the field in the CNN-DMR poll with 22% support, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 20% (the poll has a four-point margin of error, putting the two essentially in a tie). Warren and Biden are followed distantly by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 11%.

    But that doesn't tell the whole story: The topline numbers are actually the least good thing for Warren in the poll.

    Consider this:

    * Warren gained 7 points from the June DMR/CNN poll and has almost tripled her support in the state from a December 2018 poll. Biden, meanwhile, has lost support in each of the four DMR/CNN polls between December 2018 and now. And Sanders dropped 5 points from just June until now.

    * Her favorable numbers in the poll also make clear how much energy and passion is behind her candidacy presently. Three-quarters of those polled had a favorable view of her, including a whopping 44% who had a "very favorable" opinion. That compares very favorably to the 29% who view Biden very favorably and the 26% who feel that same way about Sanders.

    * Warren is the first or second choice of 42% of those polled. That's well in front of Biden (30% first/second combined), Sanders (21%), South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (18%) and California Sen. Kamala Harris (16%).

    Any one of those three data points would suggest that this poll may have only caught the start of Warren's rise in Iowa. All three together suggest she is well positioned to take off like a rocket ship in the state. Not only does she already have a broad-base of support in the state (as evidence by the topline numbers) but she also has significant passion among those who are for her and remains well-liked -- and a possible voting option -- for those who say she is their second choice at the moment.

    That's not even taking into account Warren's grassroots operation, which is widely regarded as the best -- by a lot -- of any campaign in Iowa. Wrote the Des Moines Register on Sunday:

    "Elizabeth Warren's slow but steady rise in the first-in-the-nation caucus state is as much a result of her robust organizational presence here as it is a response to the Massachusetts senator's many plans and policies, Iowa experts say ... the (poll) results were not surprising, said several Iowa Democrats who have watched Warren build out a team that is widely credited with having the most sophisticated organizational presence in the state."

    Add it all up and you get this: With 133 days left before the February 3 caucuses, Warren is the clear Iowa front-runner. There's simply no one else who can make anywhere near as strong a case -- either by polling or staff or both -- as Warren in the state.

      Now, OF COURSE, 133 days is a long time in politics. Things can change. If past is prologue, there will be a handful of up and downs within the top tier between now and February 3. But it's very clear from the polling trends that Iowa is now Warren's to lose.

      If she does win it, then Warren would be in a great position heading into New Hampshire, where she is running just behind both Biden and Sanders at the moment. And if Warren wins both of the first two voting states, the field of remaining challengers is going to shrink. Rapidly.

      Source link
      Read also:
      ABC News › Politics › 0 month ago
      Elizabeth Warren is climbing in the polls as a 2020 front-runner, but many voters still don't think she's the best choice to beat Trump. Why?
      Raw Story › Politics › 2 weeks ago
      Elizabeth Warren’s rise in the polls resulted in NBC’s “Saturday Night Live” devoting the cold open sketch the Massachuttes senator. The show imagined Warren answering questions at a town hall in Iowa. SNL’s Warren was energetic, confident...
      The Inquisitr › Politics › 2 weeks ago
      Former Vice President Joe Biden, the party’s longtime front-runner, is in fourth place in the Democratic race for president among likely Iowa caucusgoers, while Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren finds herself in first place there, according to a...
      Business Insider › Politics › 1 month ago
      Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts has surged ahead of the pack in a new Iowa poll, even surpassing former Vice President Joe Biden. The new CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of likely Iowa caucusgoers shows Warren with 22% of the caucusgoers...
      Washington Examiner › 1 month ago
      Elizabeth Warren is neck-and-neck with longtime front-runner Joe Biden in Democratic presidential primary polls, but her new status has put a political target on her back.
      ABC News › 1 month ago
      Analysis: Elizabeth Warren still growing into front-runner status
      Washington Examiner › Politics › 1 month ago
      Elizabeth Warren is the new front-runner for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination.
      Fox News › Politics › 1 month ago
      One day after being overshadowed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren at the latest Democratic presidential primary debate, Joe Biden repeatedly criticized the progressive senator from Massachusetts who’s soared in recent months and is now a co-front-runner with...
      Axios › Politics › 1 month ago
      Sen. Elizabeth Warren has overtaken 2020 rival Joe Biden in Iowa to snatch the lead in a Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll published Saturday.Why it matters: Per the Des Moines Register, this is the first time Warren has led in the state's...
      The Hill › Finance › 2 weeks ago
      An Iowa state lawmaker who previously garnered attention for defending the same-sex marriage of his two moms before the Iowa state House in 2011 has endorsed Sen. Elizabeth Warren's (D-Mass.) presidential bid.Iowa...
      Sign In

      Sign in to follow sources and tags you love, and get personalized stories.

      Continue with Google