Election poll TRACKER: Corbyn and Boris’ worst fears confirmed as voters grow frustrated

Express 4 days ago

The Savanta ComRes poll for the Telegraph found that support surged by a five percentage points when voters were asked about their intentions come December 12th. Support for “other” parties sat at six percent, clocking in at more support than those intending to vote for the Brexit Party, SNP and the Greens. But the results may also simply reflect a change in methodology from the pollster.

This was the first time Savanta ComRes have shown survey respondents their own ballot paper and asked them to give a preference based on all the candidates standing in their particular constituency.

The poll places the Conservatives ahead with 42 percent of the vote, landing them well clear of Labour sitting at 32 percentage points and Lib Dems trailing at just 12 percent.

If accurate, the Conservatives would achieve that crucial majority they’ve been chasing, with those 48 extra seats giving Boris the breathing room he has requested.

The survey also suggests that the Conservatives are doing the best in terms of voter retention from the last election as well.

"Other" parties have seen a surge in support
If accurate the poll suggest a conservative majority of 48 seats

The poll findings show a retention of 84 percent with their previous voters versus a much less impressive 68 percent for Labour.

However, with a week to go till going stations open things remain far from certain for the Prime Minister as the poll also found that a fifth of those surveyed may still change their minds.

The Lib Dems are the worst hit by this prospect as a full 28 percent said they were open to a change.

The Lib Dems are the worst hit with as 28 percent of their voters may change their mind

Labour also faired poorly with 19 percent saying the same with the Conservatives sitting most comfortably with only ten percent unsure.

The new poll results come as Mr Johnson has received a warning not to be complacent as the threat of tactical voting looms large.

The analysis, penned by ComRes chairman Andrew Hawkins points to the latest poll average suggesting the Tories currently have a ten-point lead, which would probably translate into a Tory majority of about 30.

However, he added: “While the financial markets appear to have decided that the outcome of next week’s election will be a Tory majority, the outlook for the next eight days, in reality, is far from certain.”

 

Jeremy Corbyn
Boris Johnson

He pointed out Labour had out-performed the average of all final published polls by five points, a trend which if repeated would mean another hung Parliament.

Mr Hawkins added: “To be confident of achieving a majority the Tories need to squeeze more votes out of somewhere, but the obvious reservoir (Brexit Party) is largely depleted.

“They could target Remain-voting Tories who have defected to the Liberal Democrats, but that will be difficult to achieve without alienating Leave-voting Tories.”

Sites like Remain United and high profile figures like Hugh Grant have been urging voters to vote tactically in effort to further undermine Conservative dominance.

Historically, tactical voting is generally reckoned to account for about 10 percent of votes cast, but some polling suggests it could be twice as prevalent this time.

In addition, Lord Ashcroft polling indicated the Lib Dem vote to be softer, and more Labour-inclined, than the Labour vote is towards the Lib Dems.

Boris Johnson

Also, two-thirds of Lib Dem voters would rather see a Labour Government with Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister than see a Tory one led by Boris Johnson.

A similar proportion of Lib Dems would also prefer Mr Corbyn as Prime Minister than Britain leaving the EU.


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