Box Office: What ‘Gemini Man’ Needs To Become Will Smith’s Biggest Movie

Forbes Finance 2 months ago
Gemini Man
Gemini Man

Turns out 2019 could be the biggest year of Will Smith’s storied, incredibly successful career. Aladdin this year has already been cemented as the most lucrative film of Smith’s filmography, pulling in $355.5 million domestically and a whopping $1.05 billion worldwide. And now a second Smith movie, Ang Lee’s Gemini Man, will hit theaters this upcoming weekend.

There are few actors in the history of cinema that have achieved the box office success of Will Smith. With that said, what can we expect from Gemini Man over the course of the next few months?

Here’s a statistical breakdown of Smith’s box office accomplishments, and what Gemini Man will need to achieve to rank among Smith’s top-grossing films.

An Overview

Aladdin became the 26th film of Smith’s filmography in which he played a starring role, according to Box Office Mojo. While two of his early films—Where the Day Takes You and Six Degrees of Separation—pulled in minimal numbers, no other film in Smith’s career has made less than $30 million.

In all, Smith’s 26 films have pulled in $3.56 billion domestically, for an average of $136.9 million per film. When we account for ticket price inflation, that total jumps to $5.13 billion and the average heightens to $197.5 million per film.

The 24 movies in Smith’s filmography that have played worldwide have grossed a gargantuan $8.69 billion, which comes to an average of $362.1 million per film. This doesn’t include Gemini Man, which has already played overseas to the tune of $7 million.

The Juggernauts

Two of Smith’s biggest films dropped in the past three years: Aladdin and Suicide Squad. As mentioned above, Aladdin is one of 43 films to ever surpass $1 billion at the global box office.

Suicide Squad also had quite the monster showing, coming in ninth amongst all movies in 2016 by making $325.1 million domestically. Worldwide, the film came in 11th with $746.8 million.

Beyond those recent films, two of Smith’s other biggest features came during the beginning of his career in the 1990s. The first was Independence Day, which raked in $306.2 million domestically—when we account for inflation, that total jumps to $624.1 million. Internationally, the film accrued $817.4 million.

The second ‘90s film was Men in Black, which made $250.7 million domestically and $492.1 million after inflation. Worldwide, it grossed $589.4 million.

The Rankings

It’s not likely that Gemini Man will hit the heights of those juggernauts. But as we round out the rest of Smith’s box office numbers, we’ll start to gain a better picture of how Smith’s films typically perform, both domestically and internationally.

Opening Weekend

First we’ll start with expectations for Gemini Man’s opening weekend.

Twelve of Will Smith’s 26 films have surpassed $40 million on their domestic opening weekends.

Here are Smith’s top ten performers:

  1. Suicide Squad ($133.7 million)
  2. Aladdin ($91.5 million)
  3. I Am Legend ($77.2 million)
  4. Hancock ($62.6 million)
  5. Men in Black III ($54.6 million)
  6. I, Robot ($52.2 million)
  7. Men in Black II ($52.1 million)
  8. Men in Black ($51.1 million)
  9. Independence Day ($50.2 million)
  10. Shark Tale ($47.6 million)

Opening weekend predictions have ranged between $25 million-35 million. If that were the case, Gemini Man would land somewhere between Hitch at #12 and Wild Wild West at #13.

Domestic Gross

Here’s where we up the stakes, as 15 different Will Smith films have accrued over $100 million domestically.

Here are the top ten:

  1. Aladdin ($355.5 million)
  2. Suicide Squad ($325.1 million)
  3. Independence Day ($306.2 million)
  4. I Am Legend ($256.4 million)
  5. Men in Black ($250.7 million)
  6. Hancock ($227.9 million)
  7. Men in Black II ($190.4 million)
  8. Hitch ($179.5 million)
  9. Men in Black III ($179 million)
  10. The Pursuit of Happyness ($163.6 million)

It would be pretty impressive if Gemini Man achieved those heights—and it would be even more impressive if it ranked among Smith’s filmography after accounting for inflation. In 2019, an average movie ticket costs $9.01. But in 1996, when Independence Day dropped, tickets only averaged $4.42.

Here’s that same top then after adjusting for inflation:

  1. Independence Day ($624.1 million)
  2. Men in Black ($492.1 million)
  3. Aladdin ($355.5 million)
  4. Suicide Squad ($344 million)
  5. I Am Legend ($330.9 million)
  6. Men in Black II ($295.3 million)
  7. Hancock ($286 million)
  8. Hitch ($252.3 million)
  9. Shark Tale ($233.4 million)
  10. The Pursuit of Happyness ($219.4 million)

Worldwide Gross

Finally, let’s stretch out Smith’s ranking to the international market.

Smith’s films have always played well overseas, as almost every single one of them has made over $100 million. Plus, studios have gotten more strategic than ever with their global marketing. So it really wouldn’t be a surprise if Gemini Man threatened to crack the top ten.

Here are Smith’s ten most successful films at the international box office ranked:

  1. Aladdin ($1.05 billion)
  2. Independence Day ($817.4 million)
  3. Suicide Squad ($746.8 million)
  4. Hancock ($624.4 million)
  5. Men in Black III ($624 million)
  6. Men in Black ($589.4 million)
  7. I Am Legend ($585.3 million)
  8. Men in Black II ($441.8 million)
  9. Hitch ($368.1 million)
  10. Shark Tale ($367.3 million)

If Gemini Man can manage to top $300 million, it’ll rank near the top 10 of Smith’s wildly impressive career.

Tags: Business

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