Bitcoin has had an eventful year regarding its price, rising from below $4,000 to above $13,000 before dropping back below $8,000. As bitcoin’s future pricing remains uncertain, Joel Birch, founder of Lunar, a software as a service (SAS) operation that builds crypto asset indices, said he sees sub-$8,000 bitcoin as a buying opportunity.
[Ed note: Investing in cryptocoins or tokens is highly speculative and the market is largely unregulated. Anyone considering it should be prepared to lose their entire investment.]
An entrepreneur and influencer in the crypto asset industry, Birch, known as Bitcoin Birch on Twitter, is also a partner at Lunar Capital, a fund that manages investments in the digital asset industry for accredited investors.
Coming into 2019, Birch and his team saw bitcoin as a buying opportunity any time it was below $6,000, Birch told me in an October 22 interview. At present, Birch said he sees a similar buying opportunity when bitcoin drops below $8,000.
“I can’t tell you if bitcoin is going to hit $3,000 or $4,000 or $6,000, but I can tell you, to me it doesn’t matter because I believe that any price below $8,000 is good,” Birch said. “The last couple of weeks, as it’s dipped below $8,000 we’ve bought, and we’ve seen $8,100, $8,200, $8,300,” he added.
“I don’t really believe in trying to time tops or bottoms,” Birch said. “I think averaging in and averaging out is the best strategy.”
After bitcoin surpassed $13,900 in June 2019, the asset consolidated for several months, posting lower highs and decreased volatility as its trend stalled. Crypto’s flagship asset finally broke out of its multi-month sideways price action on September 24, dropping more than $1,700 in a single day. Bitcoin’s price has since fluctuated between $7,400 and $8,800, sitting near $7,500 at press time, according to Coin360 pricing.
Birch said he does not know where bitcoin will head next, but he thinks a drop to the upper $6,000 range would not be out of the realm of possibility for the asset, prior to pivoting up in price trend as time marches toward May of 2020.
May 2020 is the estimated month for bitcoin’s halving, also sometimes called its “halvening,” at which time bitcoin’s block reward will be reduced from 12.50 to 6.25 bitcoin. Essentially, this is a deflationary event that will lead to less bitcoin entering the market on a consistent basis.
Only 21 million bitcoin will ever exist, according to bitcoin’s maximum supply, but these bitcoin are not all available on the market as part of its circulating supply. Initially, before bitcoin’s first halving in 2012, bitcoin mining resulted in 50 bitcoin entering the ecosystem every ten minutes for four years. Every four years, however, that number cuts in half, which is referred to as a halving event. Currently, 12.50 bitcoin are released into the asset’s circulating supply approximately every ten minutes.
“I do believe that bitcoin eventually will exceed $20,000, and I think that any price below $8,000 is a good price to buy,” Birch said.
Birch has been involved in the crypto space for several years, buying his first bitcoin for around $230, according to his Twitter account. He also has worked considerably in the crypto space in various capacities, so his comments may come from a natural bias toward the industry’s largest asset.
Additionally, Birch previously founded a paid educational crypto trading group called Bravado, which grants free lifetime access to selected members of the media, myself included.
Market Faces Uncertainty
Referring to comments from traditional market trader Peter Brandt, stock trader and speaker Alessio Rastani pointed out a possible scenario for price to fall slightly further to $5,500, in a YouTube video on October 16.
Bitcoin may face more in-depth complications ahead as the market appears to lack new retail money to fuel higher prices, crypto trader Tone Vays said in a September 24 YouTube video after the asset’s $1,700 plunge.
Bitcoin Could Still Fail
It is important to note that bitcoin, and the rest of the crypto space is still in its infancy, and largely still is speculative in nature. Bitcoin’s ultimate failure, although not commonly stated in the industry itself, still is possible.
Mainstream public figures such as JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon, Berkshire Hathaway’s Warren Buffett and President Donald Trump have all spoken negatively about crypto’s largest asset as a whole while the asset has endured violent price swings.
Still, roughly ten years after its inception, after being declared “dead” 377 times according to 99Bitcoins.com, bitcoin continues to operate, currently touting a market capitalization just shy of $135 billion at press time, calculated by the OnChainFX platform on Messari.io.
Disclaimer: I actively trade cryptocurrencies, as well as hold a small amount of BTC, ETH, LTC, XMR, NEO, ZEC, BEAM, BCH, DASH and various insignificant other altcoin positions.