Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 11/21:
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 224.0
Vegas Spread: Cle -2.5
We’ll kick off this slate with the Hawks, Trae Young and Dejounte Murray are going to have a tough time against this Cavs defense, but are still in play as GPP options. I do have a slight preference for Young, however. Murray has been held under 40 DraftKings points in three straight games while Young is coming off of a massive game last time out. Young leads the team with a 34.2% usage rate and 1.35 fantasy points per minute as well. Clint Capela has been good as well, the big issue for him will be minutes, when he sees the minutes, he’s generally productive but the minutes can be volatile… it is a tough matchup with Allen and Mobley down low for the Cavs. John Collins will continue to be a tournament option, he’s the definition of boom or bust and I’m not sure we need to get to him on this slate. Then we can round this team out with De’Andre Hunter as a secondary option in that price range. From the Cavaliers, Kevin Love got a mid-day upgrade to questionable yesterday, but I would have a hard time thinking he’s going to play with a stress fracture in his thumb, so I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s out again. Donovan Mitchell struggled yesterday but gets a nice bounce-back matchup against the Hawks here, I wouldn’t have an issue going back to him here. The same can be said for Darius Garland who has surpassed him as the most expensive guy on the team on DraftKings but is a much better option on FanDuel where he’s still just $8.4k. Jarrett Allen is another guy that struggled with Miami yesterday, this is a much better matchup here and I do still like the price tag. Evan Mobley was one of the only Cavs to play well yesterday and has really been in good form as of late. I like going right back to him here, he has at least 40 FanDuel points in three of his last five games. Then Caris LeVert is strictly a tournament guy that I can’t imagine I get a whole lot of on a slate this size… he left yesterday’s game early as well, so make sure he’s a full go here.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela, Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: John Collins, De’Andre Hunter, Caris LeVert
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Orlando Magic @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 226.5
Vegas Spread: Ind -7.0
Starting with the Magic, Paolo Banchero is going to miss some time but Wendell Carter Jr. will be questionable here after missing Saturday’s game. I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. Below is how this team has operated with Banchero and Cole Anthony off of the court this season:
- Chuma Okeke – 12.8% usage rate; 0.75 fpm
- Franz Wagner – 28.2% usage rate; 1.07 fpm
- Bol Bol – 20.8% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
- Wendell Carter Jr. – 24.3% usage rate; 1.18 fpm
- Jalen Suggs – 24.8% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
Franz Wagner and Bol Bol look like good mid-range options here, they both looked great in this matchup last time out… and I like attacking the Pacers regardless. We can round the team out with Jalen Suggs who is in great shape with at least 35 DraftKings points in three straight games. I do want to mention Mo Bamba as well, his price tag has come up due to his recent production, but at this price tag, I would really need Carter Jr. to sit for me to get any real exposure. From the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton was awesome last time out after being listed as questionable. He’s been incredible all season and will look good again here in a great matchup. Myles Turner continues to be great but the price tag has certainly caught up to his production. Buddy Hield has had a couple of down games as of late but has been extremely consistent on the season, he’s a nice option again here. Then guys like Jalen Smith and Bennedict Mathurin will be fine options but I’d prefer them in tournaments due to the volatility.
5-star play: Tyrese Haliburton
4-star play: Franz Wagner, Bol Bol, Wendell Carter Jr., Jalen Suggs, Myles Turner, Buddy Hield
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Chuma Okeke, Mo Bamba, Jalen Smith, Bennedict Mathurin
Boston Celtics @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 227.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -6.0
Starting with the Celtics, Jayson Tatum is priced up but it’s not without warrant. He hasn’t been great over his last couple of games, however. He’s going to look more like a secondary option for me at this price tag. Jaylen Brown, on the other hand, has at least 43 FanDuel points in four of his last five games. He’s more of a tournament guy for me due to the scoring dependency, but it’s hard to argue with the production he’s been showing. Marcus Smart and Derrick White kept it rolling last time out even with Malcolm Brogdon back, so they’re guys I don’t mind as secondary options as well. Lastly, Al Horford has been good relative to his price tag as well and makes plenty of sense in that range. From the Bulls, it’s normally a pretty quick overview for me on them because when the main three of their guys are all active and healthy, they’re hard to prioritize. That being said, the price tags on them are falling and I think they’re all in play against a Celtics defense that hasn’t quite found itself yet. DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic are coming off the better games, but Zach LaVine has averaged 34.2 DraftKings points on the season and looks good here. Outside of them, I don’t love the rest of the team, but I do think Andre Drummond is in play as a value option. We know the ceiling is there for him in limited minutes and has more minutes potential if Vuc were to get into foul trouble at all. He’s just too cheap considering his 1.33 fantasy points per minute on the season.
5-star play: Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic
4-star play: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Al Horford, DeMar DeRozan, Andre Drummond
Deeper Value: Andre Drummond
GPP Sleeper: Derrick White, Andre Drummond
New York Knicks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 230.5
Vegas Spread: Okc -2.5
Starting with the Knicks, Julius Randle had a ceiling game against the Nuggets a few games back but has been pretty disappointing since then. He gets a great bounce-back spot against the Thunder in this one, so I have no issue going back to him but he has certainly been volatile. Jalen Brunson continues to be incredibly consistent and would be another guy I wouldn’t mind getting back, he’s much more reliable relative to his price tag than Randle. RJ Barrett will be a tournament-only option again, he’s been all over the place this season and so have his minutes which were normally the biggest thing we could bank on with him. It sounds like Mitchell Robinson will return to the lineup in this one which will immediately make Isaiah Hartenstein overpriced relative to his median production. I don’t think we can go right back to Robinson in his first game back from a knee injury, I would imagine they take it easy on him in this one. Lastly, Immanuel Quickley has played at least 26 minutes in four straight games, and with Derrick Rose falling out of the rotation slowly, he makes plenty of sense at a nice price tag. From the Thunder, they’ll be without Aleksej Pokusevsi, Tre Mann, and Darius Bazley in this one. I would think we get Jalen Williams and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl back in the starting lineup and would look like solid value options. We’ve seen Robinson-Earl’s minutes become much more secure with Poku out and would be a guy I get a bunch of on this slate against a terrible Knicks defense. Williams had a nice game last time out as well, but would probably be more of a GPP guy for me, firmly in play in tournaments though. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander came down to Earth last time out, but he’s been incredible this season with a 33.2% usage rate and 1.52 fantasy points per minute. Josh Giddey bounced back in a big way last time out against the Grizzlies and looks great again here, he dropped 58.5 DraftKings points on the Knicks a few games ago. Then, Lu Dort is always in play as a secondary option or a lineup filler, I wouldn’t have a problem with him in all formats.
5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey
4-star play: Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, Jalen Williams, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Lu Dort
Deeper Value: Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
GPP Sleeper: RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams
Golden State Warriors @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 230.5
Vegas Spread: Nop -5.0
Starting with the Warriors, Steph Curry continues to dominate and will look great here again after a monster night last night against the Rockets. He now has a 30.8% usage rate and 1.60 fantasy points per minute on the season. Andrew Wiggins has been solid this season but is another guy I don’t think we need to prioritize, he would be more of a secondary GPP option for me and hasn’t been in the best of form over his last few games. Jordan Poole will go back to being a GPP-only guy for me as he continues to look for his production off of the bench. Draymond Green and Klay Thompson are fine options in their price range, but not priorities by any means, although both have been really good as of late. Klay and Steph were unstoppable last night, but I wouldn’t expect Klay to shoot 10-13 from three-point range again in this one, so don’t feel the need to chase him here. Then Kevon Looney will continue to look like a solid value center option if you need one in his range. From the Pelicans, Zion Williamson will return in this one after missing their last few games and I would assume he’s a full go. The Pelicans are very similar to the Bulls for me generally, when their main three of Zion, CJ McCollum, and Brandon Ingram are all healthy and active it’s hard for me to get to them at their current price tags. Now, the price tag on the Bulls players has come down, but the Pels haven’t because of Zion being out recently, so these guys will be secondary tournament options for me until their prices adjust. Jonas Valanciuans isn’t getting consistent enough minutes for me either, so he’ll be a guy I’m underweight on… overall, this team is one that I likely won’t get a whole lot of at this time of the day.
5-star play: Steph Curry
4-star play: Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jordan Poole, Kevon Looney, Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Jonas Valanciunas
Portland Trail Blazers @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 216.0
Vegas Spread: Mil -9.0
Starting with the Blazers, they’ll be without Damian Lillard in this one which will open up a bunch of minutes and usage in that backcourt and on the team as a whole. Below is how this team has operated with him off of the court this season:
- Anfernee Simons – 32.7% usage rate; 1.17 fpm
- Shaedon Sharpe – 17.3% usage rate; 0.67 fpm
- Jerami Grant – 24.8% usage rate; 1.03 fpm
- Josh Hart – 13.2% usage rate; 0.80 fpm
- Jusuf Nurkic – 24.2% usage rate; 1.24 fpm
I would expect Shaedon Sharpe to move into the starting lineup for Dame but has been relatively disappointing in his opportunities this season, he makes sense as a value option if you need one on this slate. This is a nice pace-up spot for the Blazers as well. Simons is going to be my favorite option from the Blazers, he’s been extremely good when Dame sits and will play all the minutes he can handle here. Josh Hart and Jerami Grant are in a similar boat where they’ll play all the minutes in the world, but the price tag has certainly caught up with them… there will be more shots to go around with Dame out, however. Then they’ll need Jusuf Nurkic’s size down low against a big Milwaukee team in this one, so he’s a solid GPP option. Speaking of Milwaukee, they’re slowly getting healthy as Pat Connaughton is expected to return here, meaning Khris Middleton is the only main piece out for them as they await his return. Connaughton being back tonight won’t change a whole lot for DFS purposes, he probably takes some minutes from guys like MarJon Beauchamp and Jordan Nwora but we weren’t playing them on this slate anyway. Giannis Antetokounmpo hasn’t been the best relative to his price tag as of late, that said, this is an elite matchup and is one of the better spend-up options on the slate. Jrue Holiday returned last time out to play 23 minutes, I would expect he’s at 25+ here, but I’ll wait for him to get his full minutes back before I pay this price tag for him. Bobby Portis is coming off of a nice game and has been a double-double machine this season, he would be more of a tournament guy due to his price tag, however. Then Brook Lopez has sneakily been one of the best all-around centers in the league this season, I have no issue going right back to him in this one.
5-star play: Anfernee Simons, Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Jerami Grant, Josh Hart, Jusuf Nurkic, Shaedon Sharpe, Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis
Deeper Value: Shaedon Sharpe
GPP Sleeper: Jusuf Nurkic, Jerami Grant, Jrue Holiday, Bobby Portis, Grayson Allen
I need to give VIP Member “TTG2436” a massive shoutout for his $100k takedown earlier in the season, congrats man! Our NBA Domination Station lineup optimizer is Powered by DFS Army proprietary projections. The Domination Station will help you create 150 of the highest projected lineups in a matter of minutes. With features that allow you to Like Love or Dislike a player, you can create a fully unique pool of players to generate your lineups from every day. Combine the power of the Domination Station with our VIP Only Articles and the NBA Research Station to really take your game to the next level.
Miami Heat @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 217.5
Vegas Spread: Min -8.0
Starting with the Heat, they’ll continue to be without Jimmy Butler while Tyler Herro comes in as questionable. I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s out due to being out for their last handful of games, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates, below is how this team operates with Herro and Butler off of the court this season:
- Bam Adebayo – 29.3% usage rate; 1.29 fpm
- Max Strus – 20.8% usage rate; 0.82 fpm
- Caleb Martin – 15.8% usage rate; 0.69 fpm
- Gabe Vincent – 19.1% usage rate; 0.77 fpm
- Kyle Lowry – 20.3% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
These would be my favorite options from the Heat, I will say, Vincent does come in as questionable as well after missing their game yesterday but would imagine he starts for Butler if he’s able to go. Kyle Lowry’s legs must have been jello yesterday after playing 51 minutes on Friday night, and it was evident in his production. I don’t hate going back to him here, he’s going to run the offense. From the Wolves, Karl-Anthony Towns has been fine as of late with at least 45 DraftKings points in two of his last three but had a rough game last time out. I do like the price tag on him quite a bit though, so he makes plenty of sense here. Anthony Edwards has been in much better form over his last few games with at least 41 DraftKings points in three of his last four. The matchup isn’t as tough with Butler out, but Bam Adebayo has really been the catalyst to their defensive success, so I’ll consider him more of a GPP guy. D’Angelo Russell is in the same boat, he will be a tournament-only guy for me, I just don’t think he’s all that good and has been very volatile for DFS purposes. Rudy Gobert draws a tough matchup here but the price tag continues to fall, so I like going back to him as well. Then we can round this team out with Jaden McDaniels as a solid secondary option.
5-star play: Karl-Anthony Towns
4-star play: Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Rudy Gobert, Anthony Edwards
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Caleb Martin, D’Angelo Russell, Jaden McDaniels
Utah Jazz @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 220.5
Vegas Spread: Lac -4.0
We’ll round the slate out starting with the Jazz, Lauri Markkanen’s production has been all over the place lately but looked great over his last couple of games, but I can’t say I love the price tag on him. Jordan Clarkson bounced back nicely last time out as well, the minutes will be there for him and there is still meat on the bone at this price tag. Mike Conley will miss this game which means we likely see Malik Beasley slide into the starting lineup making him look like a nice mid-range option. He has at least 32 DraftKings points in three of his last five. Collin Sexton should benefit from Conley being out as well as it secures his minutes and should now run that second unit with Beasley starting. Sexton has a 23.3% usage rate and 0.97 fantasy points per minute with Conley off of the court this season. Kelly Olynyk has been all over the place this season making him more of a GPP option, but we’ve seen a nice ceiling from him. The same can be said for Jarred Vanderbilt whose biggest enemy is his minutes, when he gets them up over 25, he’s going to look good. From the Clippers, Paul George comes into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates, but I’m going to operate under the assumption that he plays for the sake of this article. He has not been good as of late relative to his price tag, I’m going to be underweight on him until he proves some production. Kawhi Leonard returned a few games ago and has played right around 25 minutes, I would expect the same here, he’s not playable at this price tag. The minutes on Ivica Zubac came down in a blowout last time out but have been much more consistent as of late and makes plenty of sense as a tournament center option. Marcus Morris should continue to see a bunch of minutes as well and makes sense as a secondary option. John Wall bounced back in a big way last time out and will look like a fine tournament option right there with Reggie Jackson, both guys have had their own form of volatility this season. This team is pretty ugly to me right now, but you can piece together some interesting tournament options.
5-star play: Malik Beasley
4-star play: Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, Marcus Morris, Ivica Zubac
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Collin Sexton, Kelly Olynyk, Jarred Vanderbilt, Paul George, John Wall, Reggie Jackson
NBA Lock of the Day: Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (DK – $3.6k; FD – $4.3k)
The Thunder will be without Aleksej Pokusevski and Darius Bazley in this one which opens up a bunch of minutes for Robinson-Earl to snag. I would expect him to start in this spot and showed he can be a nice fill-in piece last time out. I just think he’s too cheap for the role he’ll play tonight in a great matchup with the Knicks who aren’t playing any sort of defense this season. With Bazley and Pokusevski off of the court this season he has just about a fantasy point per minute. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combining that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.
When you sign up, don’t forget to use promo code MADNESS to save 10% on your membership each and every month!
Editor’s Note – However, if you are more interested in simply betting the games, NBA is full of crazy action. And, our dynamic modeling over at SharpBets adjusts in real time to help identify Vegas inaccuracies you can exploit. Follow Ryan, Anthony, and Statsational for models and coaching advice that help you build any bankroll for any sport…
The post DFS NBA Full Court Press: FanDuel & DraftKings Main Slate – Nov. 21st, 2022 appeared first on DFS Army.